In the previous update on the Nifty 50 index, we had mentioned that the Nifty 50 index could retest or drop below the March low of 15,700. Since then, this scenario played out; the Nifty 50 dropped to a low of 15,183 on June 17 and has since been on a recovery path. Many of you have asked us where the Nifty 50 stands now. Here’s the view as the charts show.
As per the above table, we are not yet in a bear market, though it would seem to be just round the corner. But what the data shows is that the period taken to recover from the onset of a bear market back to regaining the previous peaks can be as short as three months or as long as 74 months.
Capitulation marks the end phase that puts a full stop to a bear market and lays the foundation for the next bull phase.
Capitulation is a phase when the sentiment turns so negative that the bellwether indices, stock prices and stock valuations plunge to levels which fundamental analysts didn’t even imagine! When Warren Buffett asks you to ‘buy when there’s blood on the Street’, it is the capitulation phase he’s referring to.
When markets are in a correcting mode, one sector that jumps to mind for its ‘defensive’ qualities is the FMCG sector. With their staple business, non-discretionary spending holds revenues in good stead. But FMCG companies have instead corrected about 20% from their October ’21 peak. Against the Nifty 50, they have been underperformers over the past two years. So, what gives?
In an M&A, company A buys out company B, triggering positive and happy noises in the market. Share prices of both companies jump in joy on the announcement. The news then gets digested and analysed. Shareholders of both companies realise after a bit, that they should have sold out in the first few days after the announcement, rather than swallow stories of ‘synergies’, ‘cost savings’, ‘market leadership’, ‘inorganic growth’ and other jargon that are usually peddled to sell mergers, in company releases and analyst reports.
Indian debt investors have been handed a raw deal in the last three years. Though inflation has been rising and market interest rates edging up, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) were doing their level-best to keep a lid on interest rates, to protect borrowers in a Covid-hit economy.
In our previous Nifty 50 index update, we had built a case for a short-term bounce in the Nifty 50 index that could extend up to 16,800-16,850 range. This price action unfolded in line with expectations and the index moved well past the target zone. The question now is, will this rally continue or is there still a risk of one more leg of downside heading back to the early March lows.
India’s cement industry has always been a good proxy for the core economy, with steady volume growth and players enjoying considerable pricing power unlike other commodities. With cement industry leaders such as UltraTech Cement, Ambuja Cements, Dalmia Bharat and Birla Corporation correcting between 10% and 20% in the last 3 months, could there be an opportunity? We take a deep dive into the cement industry to assess its prospects.
Short term outlook for Nifty 50 : We have been voicing our concerns regarding how overbought the Nifty 50 index has been in the bigger time frame. And, we have been expecting a cool off or correction in the index for the last three months. The view shared in this post on the Nifty 50 outlook is playing out and the Nifty 50 index is reverting to its mean.
On the LIC IPO, a lot is at stake. Rules have been bent, timelines collapsed and all the corners cut to meet deadlines and valuation numbers. The secondary market price is extremely critical for the government as it will decide the annual dilution of five percent that is likely to happen, to reduce the government ownership to seventy five percent over five years. So, for those who are worried about the price now, there is hope.
In our previous post on the Nifty 50 outlook, we had mentioned that the short-term technical outlook for the index was positive and that the index could head to the 18,000-18,300 range. This view played out and the Nifty 50 index hit a high of 18,350 on January 18 and has since been on a downward trajectory.
With the Budget done and dusted, most commentators have pronounced that it is a good Budget for stock markets but an awful one for bond markets. But in our view, whether you – as a bond investor – should celebrate or mourn post-Budget, will depend on your present portfolio allocation to bonds and the kind of bonds you own. Here’s how the budget affects your bond investments.
Legal Disclaimer : PrimeInvestor Financial Research Pvt Ltd (with brand name PrimeInvestor) is an independent research entity offering research services on personal finance products to customers. We are a SEBI registered Research Analyst (Registration: INH200008653). The content and reports generated by the entity does not constitute or is not intended to constitute an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation to an offer to buy or sell financial products, units or securities. All content and information are provided on an ‘as is’ basis by PrimeInvestor Financial Research Pvt Ltd. Information herein is believed to be reliable but PrimeInvestor Financial Research Pvt Ltd does not warrant its completeness or accuracy and expressly disclaims all warranties and conditions of any kind, whether express or implied. The services rendered by PrimeInvestor Financial Research Pvt Ltd are on a best-effort basis. PrimeInvestor Financial Research Pvt Ltd does not assure or guarantee the user any minimum or fixed returns. PrimeInvestor Financial Research Pvt Ltd or any of its officers, directors, partners, employees, agents, subsidiaries, affiliates or business associates will not liable for any losses, cost of damage incurred consequent upon relying on investment information, research opinions or advice or any other material/information whatsoever on the web site, reports, mails or notifications issued by PrimeInvestor Financial Research Pvt Ltd or any other agency appointed/authorised by PrimeInvestor Financial Research Pvt Ltd. Use of the above-said information is at the user’s own risk. The user must make his own investment decisions based on his specific investment objective and financial position and using such independent advisors as he believes necessary. All intellectual property rights emerging from this website, blog, and investment solutions are and shall remain with PrimeInvestor Financial Research Pvt Ltd. All material made available is meant for the user’s personal use and such user shall not resell, copy, or redistribute the newsletter or any part of it, or use it for any commercial purpose. PrimeInvestor Financial Research Pvt Ltd, or any of its officers, directors, employees, or subsidiaries have not received any compensation/ benefits whether monetary or in kind, from the AMC, company, government, bank or any other product manufacturer or third party, whose products are the subject of its research or investment information. The performance data quoted represents past performance and does not guarantee future results. Investing in financial products involves risk. Investments are subject to market risk. Please read all related documents carefully. As a condition to accessing the content and website of PrimeInvestor Financial Research Pvt Ltd, you agree to our Terms and Conditions of Use, available here. This service is not directed for access or use by anyone in a country, especially the USA, Canada or the European Union countries, where such use or access is unlawful or which may subject PrimeInvestor Financial Research Pvt Ltd or its affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement.
Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.
Compliance Officer Details: Name: Srikanth Meenakshi; Email: contact@primeinvestor.
Grievance Officer Details: Name: Srikanth Meenakshi; Email: contact@primeinvestor.
