PrimeInvestor - Articles and Reports

Why banking is a fragile business
Stocks
R Balakrishnan

Why banking is a fragile business

The recent furore surrounding the failure of Silicon Valley Bank in the US has exposed that while banking is a favourite sector with stock market investors, the fragility of the banking business is far from well-understood. Banks are held up as the engines of economic growth. Whichever sector grows, the banking sector ultimately gains. Banks are also accorded a higher valuation than most sectors during bull phases. In good times, banks made up a 40% plus weight in our leading stock market indices.

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How to pick stocks in 2023
Stocks
N V Chandrachoodamani

How to pick stocks in 2023

When we published our equity market outlook for 2023, we had mentioned where pockets of opportunity could be found. The correction the market is going through provides fertile grounds for stock picking. So here, we tell you how to pick stocks in 2023, in those pockets that we had noted. We do this using our Stock Screener.

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Technical outlook: Can the Nifty 50 slide further?
Markets
B Krishnakumar

Technical outlook: Can the Nifty 50 slide further?

In the past couple of posts on the Nifty 50 outlook, we have been voicing a bearish view for the Nifty 50 index. This has played out as per expectations. The index almost achieved the first target of 17,150-17,200 that was mentioned a couple of posts ago. In the previous update, we had mentioned the possibility of a slide to the 16,700-16,900 zone.
Let us assess if this target is likely to be achieved or not.

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Nifty Next 50 - what should you do with your investments?
Mutual funds & ETFs
PrimeInvestor Research Team

Nifty Next 50 – what should you do with your investments?

The Nifty Next 50 houses the 50 top companies by market capitalisation, after the Nifty 50. This index caught the limelight over the past month for featuring a handful of the Adani group stocks.

As we had pointed out a couple of weeks ago in our write-up on Adani stocks and index funds, the presence of a few shaky stocks in an index is not reason enough to exit it. But even before the Adani-fuelled upheaval, the Nifty Next 50’s once-outstanding performance was being eroded.

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Governance - 8 checks to assess management quality
Stocks
R Balakrishnan

Governance: 8 checks to assess management quality

The Adani saga (still continuing, I guess) brings forth the issue of governance, management quality, and other qualitative factors that many investors consider as essential check boxes. During the time I spent in CRISIL, ‘management quality’ would set a cap on ratings. But what is ‘management quality’?

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Technical outlook: Outlook now for the Nifty 50
Markets
B Krishnakumar

Technical outlook: Outlook now for the Nifty 50

In this post, we shall discuss a brief short-term technical outlook for the Nifty 50 index and some interesting statistics which will be a follow-through to what we discussed in the previous post. Let us get started with the short-term technical outlook.

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Budget 2023 - Impact on your investments & the market
Taxes
PrimeInvestor Research Team

Budget 2023 – Impact on your investments & the market

In this final budget before the elections, there is little by way of big-bang announcements. There are, however, several announcements in the Budget 2023 that do bear implications. There are two aspects to the Budget impact – on one side, there are the provisions that impact your investments and taxes specifically. On the other, there are proposals that have a bearing on prospects for different sectors. Therefore, we’ve broken down our Budget 2023 analysis along these lines.

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PRIME EQUITY OUTLOOK 2023
Markets
N V Chandrachoodamani

Prime Equity Outlook 2023

In our Prime Equity outlook in 2022 we said “We would expect any correction triggered by global rates to take the Nifty 50 down to the 12,500 to 15,000 range. In this range, investors should deploy cash and swoop in on buying opportunities rather than develop cold feet!”.
The equity market world over did see a correction in 2022 along these lines and as geo-political factors took hold. Indian markets too, experienced a rout in the first half of the year hitting close to our predicted range at 15,200 by mid-June.
Even so, India did a lot better than its emerging market peers. The Nifty 50 closed the year on a positive note, with a modest 4% return. Simply buying the Nifty 50 would have delivered a good 18% from June until December 2022. Our own stock picks delivered well in 2022, too.
But with global recession on the cards, still high Nifty 50 and a hostile rate scenario, can 2023 be better than 2022? For Indian markets, there are some key trends that we think can play out. We look at where the Nifty 50 could be headed, and where opportunities lie.

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A new approach to gauge market mood - The Nifty VMI tool
Markets
Vidya Bala

A new approach to gauge market mood – The Nifty VMI tool

“Is this a good time to invest in the market?” This is a question that many of you ask us when you want to deploy additional money. Gauging market mood is never easy and this is often done mostly by short-term traders. When investing for the long term, we typically tell you that it is best to invest in phases and avoid trying to time the market. Investing in phases (or call it SIP) and holding for the long term can help contain downsides and it is a proven strategy.

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Technical outlook – where the Nifty 50 could be headed in 2023
Markets
B Krishnakumar

Technical outlook – where the Nifty 50 could be headed in 2023

In the previous update on the targets for the Nifty 50, the expectation was that the index could head to the next target at 19,100. Contrary to expectations, the index has been in a correction phase in the past few weeks. In today’s report, thus, we try to assess both the short-term and the medium-term outlook for the Nifty 50 index.

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Prime Debt outlook 2023: Handling a rate pause
Bonds & Deposits
Aarati Krishnan

Prime Debt outlook 2023: Handling a rate pause

After bungee jumping off a cliff, it is good to wait for the adrenaline rush to wear off. Indian bond markets are in exactly this situation now. After falling sharply as rates rose, bond prices are pausing to take a breath. In our debt outlook last year we expected rates to continue their upward climb and recommended strategies to play this. During the course of 2023, we think interest rates could top out and stabilise. We tell you what this will mean for your debt portfolio.

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